Will SM new GG become SM's top group after EXO enlist?

Discussion in 'K-POP' started by Baekhyun_Anggeul, Sep 13, 2019.

  1. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    SM's top groups through the eras are : HOT -> TVXQ -> SNSD -> EXO​


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    EXO started enlisting and their next comeback this winter will probably be their goodbye comeback. By the end of next year most of the EXO members will be gone, leaving an empty spot at the top.


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    TVXQ became SM's top after HOT disbandment. SNSD became the only no.1 after TVXQ lost more than half their members. EXO got huge while snsd was active but still managed to get no.1. Now EXO will go to the army ...


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    ... which leaves a big empty spot as SM's top group and i think SM is waiting for that moment to push their new gg.


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    Do you predict SM ngg to fill EXO's gap when they are gone or will Red velvet/NCT rise?


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    Discuss and anticipate EXO's next Song Of The Year this winter + SM ngg Moonlight angels next year + stan best soloist Baekhyun.


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    #1 Baekhyun_Anggeul, Sep 13, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
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  2. whateverwonwoo

    whateverwonwoo Celebrity

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    exo will still be sm's #1 group, let's be real... when some go, others stay, then when they go the others come back... it's like a roundabout
     
  3. blueflavor

    blueflavor Celebrity

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    Who Knows, SMNGG has huge hype but it about how SM promotes and how good their debut is gonna be,
     
  4. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    i don't think they will make a group comeback when Xiumin, DO, Suho, Chen, Baekhyun and Chanyeol are gone.
     
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  5. whateverwonwoo

    whateverwonwoo Celebrity

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    their solos/unit releases still count towards exo as a whole though, without a whole group comeback and 2 members gone they're miles ahead of the rest of their company, there'll even be jongin solo eventually and he's bound to sell and we don't know when 92line are definitely enlisting
     
  6. doubleOh7

    doubleOh7 Public Figure

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    If SM had half a brain cell they would give NCT dream a fixed line up and promote them more group wise they have the biggest potential. But I mean Isn’t SuperM debuting next month?
     
  7. Sassy_Me

    Sassy_Me Public Figure

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    Depends on how well their debut does and what concept they go for.
    It's gonna be difficult tho cause the market is over-saturated and competition is tough, and there's many ggs around with lots of potential like Itzy and I*zone. Plus don't forget Twice are still around and I don't see anyone surpassing them this soon, maybe 3-4 years from now yeah.
     
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  8. fluffyhairedbaek

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    No hope for nct and rv lol

    If its not by some miracle superm or ngg then exo is going to be their last a slei
     
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  9. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    They will be a success, SM is being very careful with their debut. If SM didn't care much they would have debuted them already and let them get buried.
    I think with EXO gone, it will open a huge gap in the company and SM will heavily push their ngg there.



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  10. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    no chance for SuperM, they will become inactive when Baekhyun is gone, unless SM is planning to replace him with other EXO members.


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  11. teehee2020

    teehee2020 Newbie

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    I don't think a GG will become SM's new Top Group even with EXO gone.

    1. I think Exo-SC will at least have one comeback in 2020 before Chaneyol's off, if he's off before 2021 and mandatory enlistment and maybe more if he decides to wait until the deadline, but right now it looks like there will be no group comeback until at the very least the end of 2021. To me that's not a comeback if I'm honest, but they definitely have the chance to be SM's bestsellers and ensure Exo's brand (if not group) maintains the top spot in the company.

    2. I don't know why people tend to forget about Super Junior, but apparently they do? After DBSK's break-up and before EXO, SuJu was SM's top-selling group for 3 years. Sure, SNSD might have had more GP love, but SuJu pushed more units (I'm an SNSD stan, but I have no trouble admitting that SuJu had bigger sales and made company as much if not more money as my girls). And they've been remarkably consistent in their sales, despite being a 14-year-old group. If they manage to push their standart 400+k units with this upcoming comeback, they might have the chance at the sales crown next year too, especially considering it's their 15-year-anniversary (they have their own label and plan most of their activities, so I don't think they wouldn't capitalize on it, unlike what SM tends to do with anniversaries most of the time).

    3. NCT might not be a powerhouse seller by SM's own standards but they're still hella strong, pushing on average 300+k units with each comeback. Even if EXO-SC doesn't comeback and SuJu's sales shrink - they still have stability to outsell most of other groups on market.

    Bottom line is - Girl Groups just don't push that many units, they don't. Right now only groups that manage to get certified Gaon Platinum are Twice, BlackPink and Iz*One. Even if SM manages to push their new GG to pull larger numbers than Red Velvet is pulling right now (maybe going for more conventional concepts and sounds) - they still have a lot of heavy hitters that newly debuted GG won't be able to take on unless lightining strikes twice and they turn out to be another SNSD. And as I said earlier, SNSD might have had more love but they had smaller sales than SuJu (aside from their Oh! album, and according to wikipedia even that only beat SuJu's Bonamana by couple of thousand units), so even in that case it's very, very doubtfull they'll beat old established SM boy groups. At the very least in the first couple of years and then Exo should be back.
     
    #11 teehee2020, Sep 13, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
  12. SooYoung

    SooYoung GG Trash

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    Omg some people are still stuck in the era where they were still call moonlight angel :O
     
  13. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    1. I think next year we will get Chen last solo, Baek last solo and EXO-SC last album. After that i think they will all enlist including Kai.

    2. When i say SM's top i don't mean just physical sales only but overall. EXO/snsd are more popular than suju/nct/shinee/fx/redvelvet because of various reasons.


    I don't think you should compare red velvet sales with SM new gg. Fx never matched with snsd. and i think the new GG will be marketed the same way as snsd and twice (innocent/cute to get them fanboys and general public then a little bit of girl crush to get them fangirls).



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  14. Baekhyun_Anggeul

    Baekhyun_Anggeul Super Rookie

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    that's the last name we have of them


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  15. teehee2020

    teehee2020 Newbie

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    I might be a little negative nancy about this but I think Chen will enlist without making another comeback, by the start of next year, alongside Suho. I honestly don't know, it's just a hunch :(

    Baekhyun and Chaneyol are a little tricky, they both have time until mandatory enlistment deadline hits, but I don't think SM would want to repeat the SuJu story with members going in and out of military one by one and group not having a full line-up for years. So I definitely think Chaneyol enlisting in the first half of next year is a feasible option. Baekhyun on the other hand has obligations to SuperM, so if the rumors that SuperM's activities have been planned out for the whole year are true - he might have to wait until he actually gets that letter from the army.

    As for Kai... I kinda think there's a larger chance of SM repeating what they're doing with Shinee right now and keep him behind to "hold down the fort" so to speak, promoting both in SuperM and as a solo artist, until most of the members are back. And then have Exo come back with 6 or 7 members (like now). Rather than risk full inactivity for all the members for over a year. I actually would prefer for them all to enlist right now, be done with it and make a full line-up comeback at the end of 2021, but it just... doesn't happen that way usually.

    Exo - sure. I don't even argue that. The only group SM ever had that could rival Exo's popularity nowadays was OT5 DBSK (with DBSK maybe a little stronger at their very height due to not having any real competition).

    But SuJu was a huge force back in the day. Again, SNSD had a larger love from GP, but SuJu's fandom was HUGE and back in Gen2 fandoms were actually force to be reckoned with (SuJu was supposed to be NCT ver. 0 and fandom's vehemant objection and boycott was what actually stopped it, no fandom could pull off something like that now. Maybe army. But it's a big maybe). SuJu didn't just push units, they pushed merch and products too, and made shittone of appearances on varieties. Girls did get more CF deals if I remember correctly, but SuJu were no slouches in that department either, especially Siwon and Heechul. That's why I said "as much if not more money for the company". They were strong in different departments, but SuJu were a little stronger overall due to their huge-ass fandom (and, let's look truth in the eyes - due to them being boys).

    Anyways, I was mostly talking about the possibility of them becoming SM's top group with Exo gone, rather than going into details of who was bigger, them or SNSD (around same with SNSD a little stronger in 2009-2010 and SuJu a little stronger in 2011-2012, I'd say actually). I was mostly saying that if they could rival SNSD at the peak, they could easily beat a new GG no matter how well promoted, unless a lightning strikes in a way where their sales shrink to half what they usually sell and new GG baloons like SNSD in their very first year. Both of which seem unlikely.

    I addressed this too:

    They just wouldn't have big enough window before Exo coming back to grow to a point where they would beat out SM's old established boy groups, who aside from sales make mullah from many other avenues too.
     
    #15 teehee2020, Sep 13, 2019
    Last edited: Sep 13, 2019
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  16. Baekhyun_Anggeul

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    i think if SM new gg is pushed like snsd they can become a trend, and if they succeed SM will just stop giving EXO group comebacks when they are done with the military. if they fail, they will give EXO a comeback to save SM's stupid ass.
     
  17. teehee2020

    teehee2020 Newbie

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    ...I mean SM ARE usually stupid, but that stupid?

    I don't think they'll drop Exo that easily. I hope, at least? Nobody makes them more money. And their contracts are only valid til 2022, so I kinda hope they will want to make the most of what time's left (and that boys will play smart when resigning and maybe get SM to give them their own label like SuJu did).

    As for the new GG - they CAN become a trend and probably will. But with Twice and Blackpink still around I don't think they'll balloon to SNSD's size in the first couple of years, they'll need time to grow and they'll be playing to get into top-3 rather than straight to the top considering how oversaturated the market is. SNSD didn't have rivals when they debuted and later the only GG that could keep up with them was 2NE1, thanks to their huge digitals (never beat them, but keep up), everyone else was always at least a few steps behind.

    Now the New GG will be playing keep up, considering Twice and Blackpink's strength and the possibility of new produce girl group coming. Breaking out and beating old established groups now is hell of a lot harder than it was in Gen2.
     
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  18. Icaro_Ribeiro

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    They have a shot, but honestly you can't be a top group only with company support. They will need to be pretty, talented, charismatic and have some luck to replace EXO, they are kinda of a group whose status are find in only 3-4 groups each generation
     
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  19. salem9

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    I wouldn’t be so enthusiastic about that idea. Twice is already dominating that concept and considering how cocky SM is getting lately they’re probably going to try something new.
     
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  20. Baekhyun_Anggeul

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    twice have been around for a while now (people will start wanting a new gg soon), and they seem to be trying to change their concept.
    i think SM realized that nct and red velvet are behind their peers, so they will play safe with ngg.
     
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